Description: The paper explores developments through 2006 in the application of market-consistent concepts to the measurement of fair values of liabilities for financial reporting purposes. A set of criteria is presented that should be useful in the evaluation of proposed fair value measurement approaches where inputs based on prices observed in an active market with reliable transaction prices are not available. Based on these criteria, one approach is examined that might serve as a basis for the fair value measurement of the liability of life insurance contracts and other financial instruments issued by insurers.

Description: This paper presents a generalized profits released model which resolves the difficulties of the traditional analysis posed by products that have fluctuating profits and losses over time or have no initial investment. Discussions of the paper are included.

Description: This paper provides an overview of those cognitive biases most often responsible for flawed risk assessments and provides practical techniques to mitigate them. Through a combination of mathematical rigor, case study, metaphor, and logic, the author highlights systematic errors in our thinking about risk and provides ways to avoid them.

Description: It is now almost 120 years since Makeham extended Gompertz’s efforts to find a simple mathematical law which would reflect the mortality experience of a group of lives and also simplify the calculation of monetary values. This article discusses a radically different approach, relating mortality improvements to economic condition, proposed by Kohler and Alcock in an article in the Journal of Peace Research, Vol XIII entitled Economic Law of Life.

Description: This paper discusses the need for actuarial judgment to be used in conjunction with statistical analysis in the calculation of incurred but not reported IBNR claim reserves.

Description: Exploration of sources of volatility in retiree health valuations, noting how volatility arises and might be mitigated, with discussion of valuation parameters more problematic for retiree health benefits than for pensions. Three significant influences on retiree health valuation volatility are covered-- changes in benefit level, fluctuations in cost level, and alterations in eligibility for, or duration of, benefit – and attention focused on the last two. Specific conclusions result in recommendations, which are supported by practical examples contrasting volatile measurement results with those likely from the recommended practices. Theoretical discussion includes health claim variation, health trend usage, financial economics, option pricing, discount rates, and deterministic vs. stochastic modeling.

Description: This paper provides an overview of those cognitive biases most often responsible for flawed risk assessments and provides practical techniques to mitigate them. Through a combination of mathematical rigor, case study, metaphor, and logic, the author highlights systematic errors in our thinking about risk and provides ways to avoid them.

Description: This article discusses an upcoming SOA/CAS sponsored project regarding the Modeling of Economic Series Coordinated with Interest Rate Scenarios.

Description: The medical scheme approach adopted by several African countries has failed to meet the needs of those in informal employment and rural communities. This is partly due to affordability amongst these individuals as well as a lack of awareness of how healthcare financing products work. Community based healthcare organisations have achieved greater levels of success in this regard by carefully incorporating the peculiarities of communities in benefit design and involving community members in the management of these healthcare solutions. There are lessons to be garnered from the countries where these have been implemented with some level of success. Even as countries aim towards universal health coverage, observing the unique needs of different communities within a country is essential to ensure resources are utilised efficiently and that healthcare needs are targeted effectively.